A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
